- 1. Our thesis, stated up front: we believe Bitcoin is the most sound asset humans have ever had access to. This section argues that thesis.
- 2. Our holdings: We hold bitcoin as an asset.
- 3. We make no price predictions, ever: not for BTC, not for hotels.
- 4. BTC has 17.8 years of history (genesis block January 3, 2009 ↗); statistical claims carry that caveat.
- 5. No sponsorships from bitcoin-industry companies; if that ever changes, the disclosure goes at the top of the page, not in fine print. Sponsorship policy
Soundness scorecard
Five assets, eight criteria, one scale. Scores run from 1 (very weak) to 5 (very strong) on each criterion. Every cell links to the source behind it.
There is no composite total: how to weight the criteria is an editorial choice we have not made yet. Criteria are defined on the thesis page; scoring rules are in the methodology.
Scored Oct 25, 2026
| Criterion | Bitcoin | Gold | Hotel real estate | U.S. T-bills | Fiat (U.S. dollar) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarcity | 5/5 Very strong Consensus code caps issuance: subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks; total converges on 20,999,999.9769 BTC. | 4/5 Strong Supply grows only by mining: about 3,300 t mined in 2025 (USGS) against about 222,600 t ever mined (WGC), roughly 1.5% a year; WGC's own 10-year average is about 1.8%. | 3/5 Mixed New rooms can always be built. Public outlooks put U.S. supply growth at 0.7% CAGR over three years (CBRE) to 2.3% in 2026 (PwC). | 2/5 Weak Issued at the Treasury's discretion to fund the government; total debt outstanding is published daily and has no fixed cap. | 1/5 Very weak M2 grew from $286.6B (Jan 1959) to $23,342.8B (Aug 2026), about 81x. |
| Verifiability | 5/5 Very strong Any user running a full node checks every block against the rules, including the supply limit, without trusting miners. | 3/5 Mixed Purity and weight need assay. The London market relies on accredited refiners and a bar specification (Good Delivery). | 2/5 Weak Title is recorded, but value is an estimate: the issuer's fair-value tests rest on 'subjective assumptions' such as discount and terminal cap rates. | 4/5 Strong Outstanding debt is published daily and holdings are book-entry records, but holders rely on the record-keeper rather than checking independently. Evidence (2) | 3/5 Mixed Money stock is published monthly, but holders cannot independently audit money creation. |
| Counterparty risk | 4/5 Strong Self-custodied bitcoin is nobody's liability. Held on an exchange it carries the full counterparty risk: see the FTX fraud charges (SEC, 2022). | 4/5 Strong Bullion held directly is nobody's liability. Vaulted or pooled gold adds custodian dependence. | 2/5 Weak Value depends on third-party managers, brands, lenders and ground lessors. All of the issuer's hotels are run by third-party managers. | 4/5 Strong A direct obligation of the U.S. Treasury, the market's reference credit, but still a promise from an issuer. Evidence (1) | 3/5 Mixed Bank deposits are bank liabilities, insured to at least $250,000 per depositor per bank. Cash is a central-bank liability. |
| Durability | 3/5 Mixed No physical decay, but it persists only while the network runs. Under 18 years of history since the genesis block; mining uses an estimated 0.6–2.3% of U.S. electricity (EIA). | 5/5 Very strong Virtually indestructible: almost all gold ever mined still exists. | 2/5 Weak Buildings depreciate over 5–40 years and FF&E over 3–12 years. Owners fund FF&E reserves of 3.0–5.5% of hotel revenue. Evidence (5) | 4/5 Strong Book-entry claims don't decay, but each bill matures within 4–52 weeks and must be rolled over. Evidence (1) | 3/5 Mixed Notes wear out (Fed estimate for a $1 note: 7.2 years); balances depend on the banking system. |
| Portability | 5/5 Very strong Control is a key that can be written as a 12- to 24-word phrase and carried across any border. | 2/5 Weak Physical: an institutional bar weighs roughly 400 troy oz and needs secure transport and insurance. | 1/5 Very weak Immovable. The issuer flags real estate illiquidity and the lack of alternative uses for hotels. | 3/5 Mixed Transferable within the regulated custody chain (Fedwire Securities), not outside it. Evidence (1) | 4/5 Strong Moves electronically within the banking system. Carrying more than $10,000 in or out of the U.S. must be reported. |
| Censorship resistance | 4/5 Strong Self-custody transfers need no permission, but access points are regulated: OFAC lists addresses on the SDN list, and China declared all crypto transactions illegal in 2021. | 2/5 Weak Physical gold can be seized or its holding prohibited: the 1933 U.S. order required delivery of gold to the Federal Reserve. | 1/5 Very weak Fixed in a jurisdiction: subject to eminent domain, including for economic development (Kelo, 2005), and to property tax. | 1/5 Very weak Freezable at the custodian: Treasury immobilized the Russian central bank's U.S.-held assets in 2022. | 2/5 Weak Accounts can be blocked under sanctions programs. Cash moves hand to hand but is reportable above $10,000 at the border. |
| Settlement finality | 4/5 Strong Probabilistic: each new block (10-minute target) makes reversal exponentially less likely. No chargebacks. | 3/5 Mixed Physical delivery is final but slow. Bar-for-bar settlement depends on a standard specification. | 1/5 Very weak Sales are subject to contingencies and closings can fail or take months. | 5/5 Very strong Delivery-versus-payment on Fedwire Securities, with final payment in Federal Reserve master accounts (during operating hours). Evidence (1) | 3/5 Mixed Fedwire payments are final, but consumer electronic transfers carry error-resolution rights (Regulation E). |
| Debasement risk | 5/5 Very strong Issuance is fixed in code: currently 3.125 BTC per block (about 0.8% a year at target spacing), halving again at block 1,050,000. | 4/5 Strong Mining adds roughly 1.5–1.8% a year to the above-ground stock (USGS-based estimate; WGC 10-year average). | 3/5 Mixed Room rates reprice nightly, but wages, property taxes and insurance also rise with inflation, per the issuer's 10-K. | 2/5 Weak Nominal. Using fed funds as a proxy, the yield sat below CPI inflation in 192 of 320 months since 2000 (June 2022: CPI +9.0% vs 1.21%). Evidence (3)
| 1/5 Very weak The Fed targets 2% inflation over the longer run. The dollar has lost 87.9% of its purchasing power since August 1971 (CPI). |
Scarcity
How much can total supply grow, and who decides? Higher = supply growth is lower and harder to change.
Bitcoin·5/5Very strong
Consensus code caps issuance: subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks; total converges on 20,999,999.9769 BTC.
Gold·4/5Strong
Supply grows only by mining: about 3,300 t mined in 2025 (USGS) against about 222,600 t ever mined (WGC), roughly 1.5% a year; WGC's own 10-year average is about 1.8%.
Hotel real estate·3/5Mixed
New rooms can always be built. Public outlooks put U.S. supply growth at 0.7% CAGR over three years (CBRE) to 2.3% in 2026 (PwC).
U.S. T-bills·2/5Weak
Issued at the Treasury's discretion to fund the government; total debt outstanding is published daily and has no fixed cap.
Fiat (U.S. dollar)·1/5Very weak
M2 grew from $286.6B (Jan 1959) to $23,342.8B (Aug 2026), about 81x.
Verifiability
Can a holder check authenticity and total supply on their own, without trusting a third party?
Bitcoin·5/5Very strong
Any user running a full node checks every block against the rules, including the supply limit, without trusting miners.
Gold·3/5Mixed
Purity and weight need assay. The London market relies on accredited refiners and a bar specification (Good Delivery).
Hotel real estate·2/5Weak
Title is recorded, but value is an estimate: the issuer's fair-value tests rest on 'subjective assumptions' such as discount and terminal cap rates.
U.S. T-bills·4/5Strong
Outstanding debt is published daily and holdings are book-entry records, but holders rely on the record-keeper rather than checking independently.
Fiat (U.S. dollar)·3/5Mixed
Money stock is published monthly, but holders cannot independently audit money creation.
Counterparty risk
Is the asset someone else's liability, or does it depend on an operator, issuer or custodian to keep its value? Higher = less dependence.
Bitcoin·4/5Strong
Self-custodied bitcoin is nobody's liability. Held on an exchange it carries the full counterparty risk: see the FTX fraud charges (SEC, 2022).
Gold·4/5Strong
Bullion held directly is nobody's liability. Vaulted or pooled gold adds custodian dependence.
Hotel real estate·2/5Weak
Value depends on third-party managers, brands, lenders and ground lessors. All of the issuer's hotels are run by third-party managers.
U.S. T-bills·4/5Strong
A direct obligation of the U.S. Treasury, the market's reference credit, but still a promise from an issuer.
Fiat (U.S. dollar)·3/5Mixed
Bank deposits are bank liabilities, insured to at least $250,000 per depositor per bank. Cash is a central-bank liability.
Durability
Does the asset persist over time without decay, upkeep or an external system to keep it alive?
Bitcoin·3/5Mixed
No physical decay, but it persists only while the network runs. Under 18 years of history since the genesis block; mining uses an estimated 0.6–2.3% of U.S. electricity (EIA).
Gold·5/5Very strong
Virtually indestructible: almost all gold ever mined still exists.
Hotel real estate·2/5Weak
Buildings depreciate over 5–40 years and FF&E over 3–12 years. Owners fund FF&E reserves of 3.0–5.5% of hotel revenue.
U.S. T-bills·4/5Strong
Book-entry claims don't decay, but each bill matures within 4–52 weeks and must be rolled over.
Fiat (U.S. dollar)·3/5Mixed
Notes wear out (Fed estimate for a $1 note: 7.2 years); balances depend on the banking system.
Portability
How easily can the holder move it across distance and borders?
Bitcoin·5/5Very strong
Control is a key that can be written as a 12- to 24-word phrase and carried across any border.
Gold·2/5Weak
Physical: an institutional bar weighs roughly 400 troy oz and needs secure transport and insurance.
Hotel real estate·1/5Very weak
Immovable. The issuer flags real estate illiquidity and the lack of alternative uses for hotels.
U.S. T-bills·3/5Mixed
Transferable within the regulated custody chain (Fedwire Securities), not outside it.
Fiat (U.S. dollar)·4/5Strong
Moves electronically within the banking system. Carrying more than $10,000 in or out of the U.S. must be reported.
Censorship resistance
How hard is it for a third party (including a state) to block, freeze or seize it?
Bitcoin·4/5Strong
Self-custody transfers need no permission, but access points are regulated: OFAC lists addresses on the SDN list, and China declared all crypto transactions illegal in 2021.
Gold·2/5Weak
Physical gold can be seized or its holding prohibited: the 1933 U.S. order required delivery of gold to the Federal Reserve.
Hotel real estate·1/5Very weak
Fixed in a jurisdiction: subject to eminent domain, including for economic development (Kelo, 2005), and to property tax.
U.S. T-bills·1/5Very weak
Freezable at the custodian: Treasury immobilized the Russian central bank's U.S.-held assets in 2022.
Fiat (U.S. dollar)·2/5Weak
Accounts can be blocked under sanctions programs. Cash moves hand to hand but is reportable above $10,000 at the border.
Settlement finality
Once transferred, how quickly and firmly is the transfer irreversible?
Bitcoin·4/5Strong
Probabilistic: each new block (10-minute target) makes reversal exponentially less likely. No chargebacks.
Gold·3/5Mixed
Physical delivery is final but slow. Bar-for-bar settlement depends on a standard specification.
Hotel real estate·1/5Very weak
Sales are subject to contingencies and closings can fail or take months.
U.S. T-bills·5/5Very strong
Delivery-versus-payment on Fedwire Securities, with final payment in Federal Reserve master accounts (during operating hours).
Fiat (U.S. dollar)·3/5Mixed
Fedwire payments are final, but consumer electronic transfers carry error-resolution rights (Regulation E).
Debasement risk
How exposed is the holder to dilution of supply or loss of purchasing power by design? Higher = less exposed.
Bitcoin·5/5Very strong
Issuance is fixed in code: currently 3.125 BTC per block (about 0.8% a year at target spacing), halving again at block 1,050,000.
Gold·4/5Strong
Mining adds roughly 1.5–1.8% a year to the above-ground stock (USGS-based estimate; WGC 10-year average).
Hotel real estate·3/5Mixed
Room rates reprice nightly, but wages, property taxes and insurance also rise with inflation, per the issuer's 10-K.
U.S. T-bills·2/5Weak
Nominal. Using fed funds as a proxy, the yield sat below CPI inflation in 192 of 320 months since 2000 (June 2022: CPI +9.0% vs 1.21%).
- H.15 Selected Interest Rates: federal funds effective rate (EFFR administered by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) ↗
- CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, all items, seasonally adjusted [CUSR0000SA0] ↗
- H.15 Selected Interest Rates: 3-month Treasury bill, secondary market (monthly and daily) ↗
Fiat (U.S. dollar)·1/5Very weak
The Fed targets 2% inflation over the longer run. The dollar has lost 87.9% of its purchasing power since August 1971 (CPI).
Bitcoin’s weak spots, stated plainly
Some risks sit outside the eight criteria or cut across them. They count against the thesis and are logged in the evidence register.
- Price volatility
Coinbase BTC price fell 76.7% from $67,510.06 (2021-11-08) to $15,755.75 (2022-11-21).
- Short history
Genesis block: 2009-01-03, under 18 years of data. Statistical claims carry that caveat.
- Exchange / custody risk
Coins held on a platform are a claim on that platform (FTX, 2022).
- Regulatory risk
States can outlaw on-ramps (China, 2021) and sanction addresses (OFAC).
- Energy dependence
Mining uses an estimated 0.6–2.3% of U.S. electricity (EIA preliminary estimate).
- Software risk
A 2010 bug briefly created about 184 billion BTC before a software fix (value overflow incident).