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JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton Grande Lakes Orlando

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Orlando, FL
3.2 of 5

Scored using an estimated 2% discount to replacement cost with a 188bp spread; supply not graded (no free source gives the total pipeline share); 4 of 5 factors graded.

Rubric v1.1 (current)Rubric v1 (original): 3.2 of 5

Public-data underwrite. The buyer's information set was larger. Decision support, not a recommendation.

Price
$1.38Bapproximately, subject to adjustments
Price per key
$867k per key
Keys
1,5921,010-room JW Marriott and 582-room Ritz-Carlton
Buyer
Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP)
Seller
GLO Hotel Owner LLC
Announced
Aug 10, 2026
Status
Closed Sep 1, 2026

RHP's release names the seller as Trinity Investments. The purchase agreement (Exhibit 10.1) sends seller notices to both Elliott Management and Trinity Investments.

The tape

On Aug 10, 2026, RHP agreed to buy the fee-simple interest in the 1,010-room JW Marriott and the 582-room Ritz-Carlton at Grande Lakes, with an 18-hole Greg Norman course on 409 acres, for approximately $1.38 billion, and put $50 million into escrow. RHP disclosed a 6.6% cap rate on trailing-12-month net operating income (NOI) of $91.2 million to June 30, 2026 (Adjusted EBITDAre of $110.0 million less an $18.8 million FF&E reserve, from unaudited, seller-provided data) and a 12.5x Adjusted EBITDAre multiple. The resort carried an $800 million floating-rate CMBS loan (ORL 2024-GLKS) that the buyer could elect to assume. RHP said it would fund the purchase with cash on hand and debt, which may include assuming that loan, alongside an equity offering of 5.1 million shares launched the same day. Marriott continues to manage both hotels under their existing brands.

Grade at announcement

As of Aug 10, 2026

Price and basis

  • Price per key vs replacement cost per key 30%3

    $867k per key vs $883k replacement cost per key (HVS 2026 median including land, blended by keys: Ritz-Carlton 582 keys at the luxury median $1,604,356; JW Marriott 1,010 keys at the full-service median $467,244); 2% below

    Band: 3 = within 20% either way

    PressJul 13, 2026 (opens source)+ Price ~$1.38B, RHP 8-K Ex. 99.1

Cited figures shown for reference. They don’t enter the grade.

Price per key vs replacement cost per key

  • Deal price per key ÷ blended HVS replacement cost per key: 0.982 ($866,834 ÷ $882,947). source · Jul 13, 2026

Operating performance

  • Implied cap rate vs 10-year Treasury spread 25%2

    6.60% cap rate (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026) vs 4.72% 10-year (Aug 10, 2026 close); 188bp spread (NOI unaudited, seller-provided)

    Band: 2 = 100bp to under 200bp

    FilingAug 10, 2026 (opens source)+ 10-year par yield 4.72%, Aug 10, 2026 (U.S. Treasury)

  • Demand trajectory 15%5

    Lodging tax receipts +8.06% (trailing 12 months vs prior 12, Orange County tourist development tax, Jul 2025 to Jun 2026 vs prior 12; $404,587,100 vs $374,402,700)

    Band: 5 = up 5% or more

    RecordAug 4, 2026 (opens source)

Cited figures shown for reference. They don’t enter the grade.

Demand trajectory

  • June 2026 alone: $33.6M of tourist development tax collections, down 0.4% from June 2025. Fiscal year to date (Oct 2025 to Jun 2026): up 8.7% on the county's basis. Neither figure is scored. source · Aug 4, 2026
  • Orange County Convention Center (OCCC): FY2025-26 projection of 185 events and 2.3M attendees. source · Mar 23, 2026
  • OCCC FY2027 forecast at the county budget workshop: about 170 events and 2.1M attendees (press report). source · Jul 17, 2026
  • OCCC Phase 5A Grand Concourse ($560M, funded by the tourist development tax): a 100,000 sq ft ballroom plus 44,000 sq ft of meeting space. Groundbreaking was Dec 17, 2025, and completion is scheduled for 2029. source · Dec 17, 2025
  • Visit Orlando board minutes (June 9, 2026 meeting): group attendance had reached 18.8% of its goal through April 2026 (reported under progress toward Visit Orlando's organizational goals), with room nights slightly below target. source · Jul 15, 2026

Access: airlift and drive (not a rubric factor; no weight)

  • Airlift: Orlando International (MCO) passengers, trailing 12 months Jun 2025 to May 2026, +3.39%. source · Jul 1, 2026
  • Drive, not eligible: Central Florida Expressway toll revenue traffic, trailing 12 months Jun 2025 to May 2026, +3.08%; a hurricane toll suspension (Oct 2024) falls inside the prior-year comparison period. source · Jul 9, 2026

Financing and material risks

  • Supply backdrop 15%No free source published Orlando's total pipeline (under construction plus planned) as a share of existing rooms as of Aug 10, 2026. Partial-stage figures are shown as context only.Not graded

    No free source published Orlando's total pipeline (under construction plus planned) as a share of existing rooms as of Aug 10, 2026. Partial-stage figures are shown as context only.

    None (not graded)

  • Debt and transaction context 15%4

    Arm's-length; no public distress (latest rating action on the $800M CMBS loan: confirmed, Stable, Dec 2025). Buyer held an option to assume that loan, with modification terms not public, so the price could be paid partly in assumed debt.

    Band: 4 = Arm's-length, no distress, but the structure blurs the price signal: portfolio-allocated price, loan assumption or seller financing, earn-out or contingent consideration, partial-interest or JV recapitalization

    FilingAug 10, 2026 (opens source)

Cited figures shown for reference. They don’t enter the grade.

Supply backdrop

  • Early-planning pipeline at the end of Q2 2026: 54 projects, 5,474 rooms (free industry pipeline release), equal to 4.13% of Visit Orlando's year-end 2025 inventory of 132,685 rooms. Early planning only, not the total pipeline. source · Jul 27, 2026
  • New project announcements in Q2 2026: 8 projects, 1,292 rooms (same release), equal to 0.97% of the same base. A single quarter's flow. source · Jul 27, 2026
  • Projected 2026 new-build openings: 1,988 rooms (free industry press release), equal to 1.50% of the same base. source · Jan 16, 2026
  • Existing rooms: 132,685 at year-end 2025 (Visit Orlando Data & Trends, archived June 11, 2026). Each figure above comes from a different publisher, and geographies may differ. source · Jun 11, 2026

Financing

Assumable CMBS loanConcurrent equity offering
Watches for

The $867k per key is an average across a luxury hotel, an upper-upscale hotel, a golf course and 409 acres. The public documents don't split the price among them, so it shouldn't be read as the value of either hotel on its own.

Weights of ungraded factors are spread across graded ones.

Overall3.2 of 5 · 4 of 5 factors graded
Rubric v1 (original), graded Oct 26, 2026: 3.2 of 5

Scored using an estimated 2% discount to replacement cost with a 188bp spread; 4 of 5 factors graded.

  • Price per key vs replacement cost per key 30%3

    $867k per key vs $883k replacement cost per key (HVS 2026 median including land, blended by keys: Ritz-Carlton 582 keys at the luxury median $1,604,356; JW Marriott 1,010 keys at the full-service median $467,244); 2% below

    Band: 3 = within 20% either way

    PressJul 13, 2026 (opens source)+ Price ~$1.38B, RHP 8-K Ex. 99.1

  • Implied cap rate vs 10-year Treasury spread 25%2

    6.60% cap rate (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026) vs 4.72% 10-year (Aug 10, 2026 close); 188bp spread (NOI unaudited, seller-provided)

    Band: 2 = 100bp to under 200bp

    FilingAug 10, 2026 (opens source)+ 10-year par yield 4.72%, Aug 10, 2026 (U.S. Treasury)

  • Supply backdrop 15%No free source published Orlando's total pipeline (under construction plus planned) as a share of existing rooms as of Aug 10, 2026. Partial-stage figures are shown as context only.Not graded

    No free source published Orlando's total pipeline (under construction plus planned) as a share of existing rooms as of Aug 10, 2026. Partial-stage figures are shown as context only.

    None (not graded)

  • Demand trajectory 15%5

    Lodging tax receipts +8.06% (trailing 12 months vs prior 12, Orange County tourist development tax, Jul 2025 to Jun 2026 vs prior 12; $404,587,100 vs $374,402,700)

    Band: 5 = up 5% or more

    RecordAug 4, 2026 (opens source)

  • Debt and transaction context 15%4

    Arm's-length; no public distress (latest rating action on the $800M CMBS loan: confirmed, Stable, Dec 2025). Buyer held an option to assume that loan, with modification terms not public, so the price could be paid partly in assumed debt.

    Band: 4 = Arm's-length, no distress, but the structure blurs the price signal: portfolio-allocated price, loan assumption or seller financing, earn-out or contingent consideration, partial-interest or JV recapitalization

    FilingAug 10, 2026 (opens source)

After the deal

Tracked separately. Not part of the grade.

  1. T0 · at announcement
    Aug 10, 2026
    • Orange County tourist development tax, trailing 12 months to June 2026: $404.6M, up 8.06% on the prior 12 months source
  2. T+1
    Lands Aug 2027
  3. T+2
    Lands Aug 2028
Sources (20)

Related

Orlando market →RHP (Ryman Hospitality Properties) →RHP earnings calls →Orlando scarcity watch →
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