Four Seasons Resort Scottsdale at Troon North
Ask about thisScored using an estimated 10% premium to replacement cost with a 149bp spread (our calculation); supply not graded (only an under-construction share is public); 4 of 5 factors graded.
Public-data underwrite. The buyer's information set was larger. Decision support, not a recommendation.
- Price
- $372M
- Price per key
- $1.77M per key
- Keys
- 210
- Buyer
- Evergreen Acquisitions, LLC
- Seller
- Braemar Hotels & Resorts (BHR)
- Announced
- Sep 29, 2026
- Status
- Announced
Grade at announcement
As of Sep 29, 2026Price and basis
| Factor | Score | Input | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price per key vs replacement cost per key 30% | 3 | $1.77M per key vs $1.6M replacement cost per key (HVS 2026 luxury median including land, $1,604,356; single class); 10% above | 3 = within 20% either way | PressJul 13, 2026 (opens source)+ Price $372.0M, BHR 8-K filed Sep 29, 2026 |
Price per key vs replacement cost per key 30%3
$1.77M per key vs $1.6M replacement cost per key (HVS 2026 luxury median including land, $1,604,356; single class); 10% above
Band: 3 = within 20% either way
PressJul 13, 2026 (opens source)+ Price $372.0M, BHR 8-K filed Sep 29, 2026
Cited figures shown for reference. They don’t enter the grade.
Price per key vs replacement cost per key
- Deal price per key ÷ HVS luxury replacement cost per key: 1.104 ($1,771,429 ÷ $1,604,356). source · Jul 13, 2026
Operating performance
| Factor | Score | Input | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied cap rate vs 10-year Treasury spread 25% | 2 | 6.75% cap rate (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026, our calculation using Braemar's NOI definition: hotel EBITDA $28.32M less a 4% reserve on $80.45M revenue = NOI $25.1M, over $372.0M) vs 5.26% 10-year (Sep 29, 2026 close); 149bp spread (our calculation) | 2 = 100bp to under 200bp | FilingAug 5, 2026 (opens source)+ Braemar NOI definition (4% reserve), BHR 8-K Ex. 99.1, Apr 30, 2026+ Price $372.0M, BHR 8-K filed Sep 29, 2026+ 10-year par yield 5.26%, Sep 29, 2026 (U.S. Treasury) |
| Demand trajectory 15% | 4 | Lodging tax receipts +3.86% (fiscal year to date vs prior, City of Scottsdale bed tax, fiscal year to date Jul 2025 to Mar 2026 vs prior; $25,401,992 vs $24,458,616) | 4 = flat to up under 5% | RecordMay 19, 2026 (opens source) |
Implied cap rate vs 10-year Treasury spread 25%2
6.75% cap rate (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026, our calculation using Braemar's NOI definition: hotel EBITDA $28.32M less a 4% reserve on $80.45M revenue = NOI $25.1M, over $372.0M) vs 5.26% 10-year (Sep 29, 2026 close); 149bp spread (our calculation)
Band: 2 = 100bp to under 200bp
FilingAug 5, 2026 (opens source)+ Braemar NOI definition (4% reserve), BHR 8-K Ex. 99.1, Apr 30, 2026+ Price $372.0M, BHR 8-K filed Sep 29, 2026+ 10-year par yield 5.26%, Sep 29, 2026 (U.S. Treasury)
Demand trajectory 15%4
Lodging tax receipts +3.86% (fiscal year to date vs prior, City of Scottsdale bed tax, fiscal year to date Jul 2025 to Mar 2026 vs prior; $25,401,992 vs $24,458,616)
Band: 4 = flat to up under 5%
Cited figures shown for reference. They don’t enter the grade.
Implied cap rate vs 10-year Treasury spread
- Status after announcement: BHR published a 6.2% cap rate on net operating income (NOI) for the trailing 12 months ended August 2026, including $23M of anticipated capex. Not graded: published after the announcement. source · Oct 8, 2026
Access: airlift and drive (not a rubric factor; no weight)
- Airlift: Phoenix Sky Harbor (PHX) passengers, trailing 12 months Aug 2025 to Jul 2026, −0.36%. No drive-corridor data. source · Aug 28, 2026
Financing and material risks
| Factor | Score | Input | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply backdrop 15% | Not graded | Only an under-construction share is public (Phoenix metro 5.7%), a subset of the total pipeline; no single source gave the total pipeline share by Sep 29, 2026. | None (not graded) | |
| Debt and transaction context 15% | 3 | Arm's-length buyer, but a pressured seller: BHR said (Jun 12, 2026) it would sell two or three more assets to satisfy its obligations on the termination of the Ashford advisory relationship, with net proceeds going to Ashford; its Q2 10-Q records a $480.0M fee liability. No formal distress. | 3 = Pressured seller without formal distress (publicly flagged loan maturity within 12 months, watchlist, fund wind-down) or a related-party / non-arm's-length transaction | FilingJun 12, 2026 (opens source)+ BHR 10-Q Q2 2026 ($480.0M fee liability) |
Supply backdrop 15%Only an under-construction share is public (Phoenix metro 5.7%), a subset of the total pipeline; no single source gave the total pipeline share by Sep 29, 2026.Not graded
Only an under-construction share is public (Phoenix metro 5.7%), a subset of the total pipeline; no single source gave the total pipeline share by Sep 29, 2026.
None (not graded)
Debt and transaction context 15%3
Arm's-length buyer, but a pressured seller: BHR said (Jun 12, 2026) it would sell two or three more assets to satisfy its obligations on the termination of the Ashford advisory relationship, with net proceeds going to Ashford; its Q2 10-Q records a $480.0M fee liability. No formal distress.
Band: 3 = Pressured seller without formal distress (publicly flagged loan maturity within 12 months, watchlist, fund wind-down) or a related-party / non-arm's-length transaction
FilingJun 12, 2026 (opens source)+ BHR 10-Q Q2 2026 ($480.0M fee liability)
Cited figures shown for reference. They don’t enter the grade.
Supply backdrop
- Phoenix metro: 4,200 rooms under construction at year-end 2025, 5.7% of inventory (broker report). Under construction only, a subset of the total pipeline; the source page was updated after the announcement. source · May 7, 2026
Debt and transaction context
- $180M floating-rate mortgage on the hotel at Jun 30, 2026; its treatment in the sale wasn't stated. source · Aug 6, 2026
Weights of ungraded factors are spread across graded ones.
Rubric v1 (original), graded Oct 26, 2026: 3.3 of 5
Scored using an estimated 10% premium to replacement cost; spread not graded; 3 of 5 factors graded.
| Factor | Score | Input | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price per key vs replacement cost per key 30% | 3 | $1.77M per key vs $1.6M replacement cost per key (HVS 2026 luxury median including land, $1,604,356; single class); 10% above | 3 = within 20% either way | PressJul 13, 2026 (opens source)+ Price $372.0M, BHR 8-K filed Sep 29, 2026 |
| Implied cap rate vs 10-year Treasury spread 25% | Not graded | Not graded under v1. Nothing was disclosed at announcement (Sep 29, 2026). The 6.2% cap rate published Oct 8 came after the announcement and covers the trailing 12 months to August 2026 and includes $23M of capex. | None (not graded) | |
| Supply backdrop 15% | Not graded | Only an under-construction share is public (Phoenix metro 5.7%), a subset of the total pipeline; no single source gave the total pipeline share by Sep 29, 2026. | None (not graded) | |
| Demand trajectory 15% | 4 | Lodging tax receipts +3.86% (fiscal year to date vs prior, City of Scottsdale bed tax, fiscal year to date Jul 2025 to Mar 2026 vs prior; $25,401,992 vs $24,458,616) | 4 = flat to up under 5% | RecordMay 19, 2026 (opens source) |
| Debt and transaction context 15% | 3 | Arm's-length buyer, but a pressured seller: BHR said (Jun 12, 2026) it would sell two or three more assets to satisfy its obligations on the termination of the Ashford advisory relationship, with net proceeds going to Ashford; its Q2 10-Q records a $480.0M fee liability. No formal distress. | 3 = Pressured seller without formal distress (publicly flagged loan maturity within 12 months, watchlist, fund wind-down) or a related-party / non-arm's-length transaction | FilingJun 12, 2026 (opens source)+ BHR 10-Q Q2 2026 ($480.0M fee liability) |
Price per key vs replacement cost per key 30%3
$1.77M per key vs $1.6M replacement cost per key (HVS 2026 luxury median including land, $1,604,356; single class); 10% above
Band: 3 = within 20% either way
PressJul 13, 2026 (opens source)+ Price $372.0M, BHR 8-K filed Sep 29, 2026
Implied cap rate vs 10-year Treasury spread 25%Not graded under v1. Nothing was disclosed at announcement (Sep 29, 2026). The 6.2% cap rate published Oct 8 came after the announcement and covers the trailing 12 months to August 2026 and includes $23M of capex.Not graded
Not graded under v1. Nothing was disclosed at announcement (Sep 29, 2026). The 6.2% cap rate published Oct 8 came after the announcement and covers the trailing 12 months to August 2026 and includes $23M of capex.
None (not graded)
Supply backdrop 15%Only an under-construction share is public (Phoenix metro 5.7%), a subset of the total pipeline; no single source gave the total pipeline share by Sep 29, 2026.Not graded
Only an under-construction share is public (Phoenix metro 5.7%), a subset of the total pipeline; no single source gave the total pipeline share by Sep 29, 2026.
None (not graded)
Demand trajectory 15%4
Lodging tax receipts +3.86% (fiscal year to date vs prior, City of Scottsdale bed tax, fiscal year to date Jul 2025 to Mar 2026 vs prior; $25,401,992 vs $24,458,616)
Band: 4 = flat to up under 5%
Debt and transaction context 15%3
Arm's-length buyer, but a pressured seller: BHR said (Jun 12, 2026) it would sell two or three more assets to satisfy its obligations on the termination of the Ashford advisory relationship, with net proceeds going to Ashford; its Q2 10-Q records a $480.0M fee liability. No formal distress.
Band: 3 = Pressured seller without formal distress (publicly flagged loan maturity within 12 months, watchlist, fund wind-down) or a related-party / non-arm's-length transaction
FilingJun 12, 2026 (opens source)+ BHR 10-Q Q2 2026 ($480.0M fee liability)
After the deal
Tracked separately. Not part of the grade.
- T0 · at announcementSep 29, 2026
- T+1Lands Sep 2027
- T+2Lands Sep 2028
Sources (7)
- FilingExhibit 99.1: strategic review outcome (asset sales to satisfy Ashford termination obligations)
- FilingForm 10-Q, Q2 2026 ($480.0M fee liability; $180M mortgage)
- FilingForm 8-K: purchase and sale agreement ($372.0M, $10M non-refundable deposit)
- FilingExhibit 99.1: portfolio update, 6.2% cap rate (status only)
- RecordMonthly tax collection report, March 2026 (archived May 19, 2026)
- RecordDaily Treasury par yield curve rates, 10 Yr (close used)
- PressHVS U.S. Hotel Development Cost Survey 2026 (Exhibit 6, median total incl. land)
Sources (7)
- FilingExhibit 99.1: strategic review outcome (asset sales to satisfy Ashford termination obligations)
- FilingForm 10-Q, Q2 2026 ($480.0M fee liability; $180M mortgage)
- FilingForm 8-K: purchase and sale agreement ($372.0M, $10M non-refundable deposit)
- FilingExhibit 99.1: portfolio update, 6.2% cap rate (status only)
- RecordMonthly tax collection report, March 2026 (archived May 19, 2026)
- RecordDaily Treasury par yield curve rates, 10 Yr (close used)
- PressHVS U.S. Hotel Development Cost Survey 2026 (Exhibit 6, median total incl. land)