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San Francisco–Oakland–Berkeley MSA

California / West·Destination dashboard

We haven't checked enough sources for this market yet.

Rates

Tuesday Trends board

Captured Tue, Oct 20, 2026. Median cheapest refundable nightly rate, 2 adults, pre-tax, across 50 hotels. Indicative Google Hotels prices; decision support, not a quote.

Median cheapest refundable nightly rate by horizon and stay
OutWeekdayMon–ThuWeekendFri–Sun
1 wk
$705
38/50 priced
6 no rates on Google
$206
45/50 priced
1 no rates on Google
1 mo
$1,040
36/50 priced
6 no rates on Google
$180
45/50 priced
3 mo
$271
44/50 priced
$219
45/50 priced
1 no rates on Google
6 mo
$382
42/50 priced
4 no rates on Google
$251
43/50 priced
~11 mo
$336
38/50 priced
5 no rates on Google
$279
39/50 priced
5 no rates on Google

Coverage counts hotels with a refundable rate; low-confidence prices (2 or fewer sellers and no official hotel site) are left out. Thin: under 15 of 50. ● 10+ no rates on Google at 1 wk. At ~11 months, no rates largely reflect Google's ~330-day pricing limit.

Signals

25 cited
talent2 changesas of 2026-10-19

SF Bay Area talent: 3.1 Notable recent management changes

Hotel Spero → Crestline (Jan 2026). Hilton SF Union Square / Parc 55 ownership change out of receivership (Nov 2025); ~900 Local 2 workers…

debt4 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area debt & deals: Market-level reads

Host SF/San Jose comparable RevPAR: +8.0% YoY · Q3-2025 SF hotel tax, all funds: $283.5M (FY23) → $287.5M (FY24) → $289.3M (FY25)…

tax5 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area tax & CVB: Lodging tax stack (City & County of San Francisco)

State sales tax on lodging: 0% (CA does not tax transient lodging)

tax7 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area tax & CVB: Collections and DMO budget

Hotel tax, all funds: $289.3M actual; projected $305.8M · FY2025; FY2026

debt4 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area debt & deals: Named hotel transactions 2025–2026

Hyatt Regency San Francisco (Embarcadero): PSA 2026-06-23; close expected late Jul/early Aug 2026 · Blackstone Real Estate funds / Sunstone…

debt5 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area debt & deals: CMBS / balance-sheet loans

Stanford Court Hotel (Nob Hill, 400 rooms, leasehold): $105M Deutsche Bank loan (2018) · Defaults in 2022 and 2024.

+1 more source
talent4 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area talent: 2. Build talent (summary)

SF–Oakland–Fremont construction: 119,000 → 116,000 (−3,000, −3%) · Aug 2025 → Aug 2026

supply4 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area supply: Submarket basemap (v0)

SF Union Square / Moscone / SoMa: Convention-driven recovery; distressed trades (Parc 55 / Hilton Union Square)

+1 more source
supplyscore 1/5as of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area supply-pressure score 1/5

1 / 5 (strong supply tailwind). UC intensity: SF city 0; metro 2026 adds 91 rooms

pipeline4 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area pipeline: Stage rollup

Bay Area UC (2025): 15 · 1,610 Bay Area UC (2024): 21 · 2,452

pipeline2 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area pipeline: Named projects

Hampton by Hilton Redwood City: no public read on key count (metro total 91) · Opening · Peninsula · 2026

talent4 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area talent: 1.1 BLS OEWS — hotel occupations

Maids & housekeeping cleaners (all industries) (37-2012): 5620 · $23.17 · $28.05

talent4 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area talent: 1.1 BLS OEWS — hotel occupations

Maids & housekeeping cleaners (all industries) (37-2012): 12990 · $22.40 · $25.31

talent5 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area talent: 5. Gaps (no public read)

Local 2 hourly scale by classification; 2025 non-big-3 FS outcomes: No public read

Source: No linked public source (reviewed 2026-10-11) · no public read

talent6 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area talent: 1. Wage floor

San Francisco minimum wage: $19.61/hr · eff. 2026-07-01 Oakland hotel minimum (Measure Z, OMC 5.93; hotels ≥50 rooms): $18.85 w/ health…

+3 more sources
talent5 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area talent: 3. Operator bench

Operator bench. Crestline Hotels & Resorts: M · Selected to manage Hotel Spero, Vignette Collection (236 keys, Union Square) · James…

+1 more source
supply7 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area supply: Snapshot

Implied rooms (STR SF/San Mateo market): ~54,849 (Q2 supply room-nights ÷ 91, derived) · Q2 2026

+2 more sources
supply9 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area supply: Latest pulse: SF led the Top 25 most of 2026

CoStar Aug 2026 monthly: Led Top 25: OCC +6.6% to 79.3%, ADR +8.7% to $216.77, RevPAR +15.8% to $171.84

+7 more sources
drive3 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area drive + attraction demand anchors

Drive catchment: Sacramento/Central Valley (I-80, I-5/I-580), Monterey/Santa Cruz (US-101), Wine Country (napa-sonoma lane); BART/Caltrain…

airlift9 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area airlift / air access demand

SFO Aug 2026 total: 5,033,894 (+4.1%) SFO Aug dom / intl: 3,611,762 (+7.7%) / 1,396,180 (−4.3%), so intl ≈ 28%

citywide_calendar9 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area group / citywide demand calendar

Oct 13–15, 2026: TechCrunch Disrupt (Moscone West) · ~10,000 founders/investors per organizer (TechCrunch, 2026-10-09))

+10 more sources
visitation7 rowsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area visitation / demand volume

Visitors 2025 actual: 23.7M; spend $9.4B; OCC 67.2% 2026 forecast: 24.4M visitors; $9.94B spend; OCC 70.7%; ADR $266.16; RevPAR $188.06…

citywide_calendar4 eventsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay 90-day compression calendar (Oct 12 2026 → Jan 10 2027)

2026-10-13 → 2026-10-15: TechCrunch Disrupt (Moscone West; ~10,000) + SEMICON West (Moscone N+S) [Citywide / tech] — Confirmed · · count…

+3 more sources
reit_exposure6,833 rooms / 4 REITsas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area REIT ownership (Tier 1): 6,833 rooms, 4 REITs + Hyatt 821

Rooms owned: HST 4,162 (61%; the largest single REIT block in any Tier 1 market); PEB 1,458 (21%); PK 1,073; APLE 140.

+9 more sources
eventhostas of 2026-10-11 (event Jun 11–Jul 19, 2026)

World Cup 2026 post-Cup demand read — SF Bay (host; 2027 comp by window)

World Cup 2026 (Jun 11–Jul 19) — host market. Key numbers (lift vs hype): HVS: OCC +0.3 pt, RevPAR +13.4%, <$25M incremental.

+1 more source

Hotel-tax collections

newest first · 18 periods
tax$289.3M (+0.6% YoY) · budgetary actual (Controller)as of FY2024-25 (Jul 2024–Jun 2025)

SF Bay Area SF hotel tax, all funds (Controller) — FY2024-25 (Jul 2024–Jun 2025)

Amount: $289.3M · YoY: +0.6% (computed). Basis: budgetary actual (Controller); FY Jul–Jun.

tax$287.5M (+1.4% YoY) · budgetary actual (Controller)as of FY2023-24 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)

SF Bay Area SF hotel tax, all funds (Controller) — FY2023-24 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)

Amount: $287.5M · YoY: +1.4% (computed). Basis: budgetary actual (Controller); FY Jul–Jun.

tax$283.02M (+1.5% YoY) · city-reported to State Controlleras of FY2024 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)

SF Bay Area SF TOT, annual (State Controller) — FY2024 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)

Amount: $283,019,739 · YoY (computed): +1.5%. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$24.09M · city-reported to State Controlleras of Oakland TOT, FY2024 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)

SF Bay Area Bay Area city TOT, annual (State Controller) — Oakland TOT, FY2024 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)

Amount: $24,093,750 · YoY: n/a. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$39.78M · city-reported to State Controlleras of San José TOT, FY2024 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)

SF Bay Area Bay Area city TOT, annual (State Controller) — San José TOT, FY2024 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)

Amount: $39,778,835 · YoY: n/a. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$283.5M (+58.3% YoY) · budgetary actual (Controller)as of FY2022-23 (Jul 2022–Jun 2023)

SF Bay Area SF hotel tax, all funds (Controller) — FY2022-23 (Jul 2022–Jun 2023)

Amount: $283.5M · YoY: +58.3% (computed). Basis: budgetary actual (Controller); FY Jul–Jun.

+12 earlier periods
tax$278.96M (+59.8% YoY) · city-reported to State Controlleras of FY2023 (Jul 2022–Jun 2023)

SF Bay Area SF TOT, annual (State Controller) — FY2023 (Jul 2022–Jun 2023)

Amount: $278,961,142 · YoY (computed): +59.8%. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$179.1M (+324.4% YoY) · budgetary actual (Controller)as of FY2021-22 (Jul 2021–Jun 2022)

SF Bay Area SF hotel tax, all funds (Controller) — FY2021-22 (Jul 2021–Jun 2022)

Amount: $179.1M · YoY: +324.4% (computed). Basis: budgetary actual (Controller); FY Jul–Jun.

tax$174.61M (+363.2% YoY) · city-reported to State Controlleras of FY2022 (Jul 2021–Jun 2022)

SF Bay Area SF TOT, annual (State Controller) — FY2022 (Jul 2021–Jun 2022)

Amount: $174,609,059 · YoY (computed): +363.2%. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$42.2M (-85.0% YoY) · budgetary actual (Controller)as of FY2020-21 (Jul 2020–Jun 2021)

SF Bay Area SF hotel tax, all funds (Controller) — FY2020-21 (Jul 2020–Jun 2021)

Amount: $42.2M · YoY: -85.0% (computed). Basis: budgetary actual (Controller); FY Jul–Jun.

tax$37.70M (-86.6% YoY) · city-reported to State Controlleras of FY2021 (Jul 2020–Jun 2021)

SF Bay Area SF TOT, annual (State Controller) — FY2021 (Jul 2020–Jun 2021)

Amount: $37,698,007 · YoY (computed): -86.6%. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$281.6M (-32.0% YoY) · budgetary actual (Controller)as of FY2019-20 (Jul 2019–Jun 2020)

SF Bay Area SF hotel tax, all funds (Controller) — FY2019-20 (Jul 2019–Jun 2020)

Amount: $281.6M · YoY: -32.0% (computed). Basis: budgetary actual (Controller); FY Jul–Jun.

tax$280.97M (-31.2% YoY) · city-reported to State Controlleras of FY2020 (Jul 2019–Jun 2020)

SF Bay Area SF TOT, annual (State Controller) — FY2020 (Jul 2019–Jun 2020)

Amount: $280,969,933 · YoY (computed): -31.2%. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$414.3M · budgetary actual (Controller)as of FY2018-19 (Jul 2018–Jun 2019)

SF Bay Area SF hotel tax, all funds (Controller) — FY2018-19 (Jul 2018–Jun 2019)

Amount: $414.3M · YoY: n/a. Basis: budgetary actual (Controller); FY Jul–Jun.

tax$408.35M (+6.8% YoY) · city-reported to State Controlleras of FY2019 (Jul 2018–Jun 2019)

SF Bay Area SF TOT, annual (State Controller) — FY2019 (Jul 2018–Jun 2019)

Amount: $408,348,112 · YoY (computed): +6.8%. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$382.18M (+3.2% YoY) · city-reported to State Controlleras of FY2018 (Jul 2017–Jun 2018)

SF Bay Area SF TOT, annual (State Controller) — FY2018 (Jul 2017–Jun 2018)

Amount: $382,175,695 · YoY (computed): +3.2%. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

tax$370.34M · city-reported to State Controlleras of FY2017 (Jul 2016–Jun 2017)

SF Bay Area SF TOT, annual (State Controller) — FY2017 (Jul 2016–Jun 2017)

Amount: $370,344,455 · YoY (computed): n/a. Basis: city-reported to State Controller; FY Jul–Jun.

taxno public readas of 2026-10-11

SF Bay Area hotel-tax series — gaps

SF Bay Area hotel-tax series gaps (as of 2026-10-11): Monthly / quarterly SF TOT: no public read this pass (the Controller publishes…

Source: Official publishers (gap note; no public read) · no public read

Assets

none yet
No cited assets yet for this destination. Underwrite by submarket and product class — MSA averages are not a substitute for a competitive set.

Linked findings

No radar findings for this market yet.
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