Las Vegas–Henderson–Paradise MSA
Cited snapshotNevada / Southwest·Destination dashboard
2025 visitation soft (38.5M visitors). Capital thesis shifts from unstoppable leisure machine to event- and airlift-dependent cyclical. Midweek OCC lags weekends.
Rates
Tuesday Trends boardCaptured Tue, Oct 20, 2026. Median cheapest refundable nightly rate, 2 adults, pre-tax, across 50 hotels. Indicative Google Hotels prices; decision support, not a quote.
| Out | WeekdayMon–Thu | WeekendFri–Sun |
|---|---|---|
| 1 wk | $254 45/50 priced 3 no rates on Google | $169 48/50 priced |
| 1 mo | $165 42/50 priced 3 no rates on Google | $294 38/50 priced 1 no rates on Google |
| 3 mo | $309 46/50 priced 1 no rates on Google | $248 44/50 priced 2 no rates on Google |
| 6 mo | $127 47/50 priced 1 no rates on Google | $254 41/50 priced 1 no rates on Google |
| ~11 mo | $148 34/50 priced 8 no rates on Google | $294 34/50 priced 7 no rates on Google |
Coverage counts hotels with a refundable rate; low-confidence prices (2 or fewer sellers and no official hotel site) are left out. Thin: under 15 of 50. ● 10+ no rates on Google at 1 wk. At ~11 months, no rates largely reflect Google's ~330-day pricing limit.
Which part of Vegas: visitors vs. scarce rooms
Strip weekend strength (high-80s capable) masks softer midweek and already-soft Downtown (67.5% OCC). Hard Rock @ former Mirage (~3,600 keys, late 2027) is a discrete supply-return event into a softer demand tape.
Signals
9 citedLas Vegas airlift: LAS passengers −9.2% in August, −7.2% YTD
Harry Reid (LAS) August 2026: 4.1M passengers, −9.2% YoY (domestic −10.2%, international +3.9%).
Hard Rock Las Vegas construction — one-day evacuation, still late-2027
Hard Rock Las Vegas site evacuated 2026-10-05 over a vague threat; work resumed 10-06.
Las Vegas only top-25 market down in week ending Oct 3 (RevPAR −18%)
Per the Skift Daily Lodging Report for the week ending Oct 3, Las Vegas was the only top-25 market down, with RevPAR −18% — consistent with…
Las Vegas loses NACS Show fall citywide in 2027 (moves to Atlanta)
NACS Show ran at LVCC Oct 6–9, 2026 (2025: 25,136 attendees; official block rates $97–$529 + resort fee).
Las Vegas visitation softness 2025
38,545,700 visitors (YE 2025). LVCVA framed 2025 as a complex post-COVID environment.
Hard Rock supply-return watch (2027)
Former Mirage (~3,600 keys) targeting late 2027 Hard Rock reopen — discrete Strip inventory-class return into a softer demand tape.
Vegas July 2026 monthly pulse (LVCVA)
Jul OCC 77.2% (+1.1 pp YoY); ADR $157.45; RevPAR $121.55; weighted inventory 150,608 (+0.8% YoY).
Vegas OCC split — weekend vs midweek
Total OCC 80.3% (−3.3 pp vs 2024). Weekend 88.8% / midweek 76.6%.
Human-touch / Hard Rock peak-crew greenlight
Hard Rock peak construction crews and Strip high-touch gaming/leisure product compete for trades and staffing.
Source: Bungah Capital Intel talent synthesis (public construction/crew reporting)
Hotel-tax collections
newest first · 16 periodsLas Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Jun 2026
$24,330,018 · Prior-year month: $24,603,391 · YoY (published): −1.11%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — May 2026
$35,803,783 · Prior-year month: $33,452,788 · YoY (computed): +7.0%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, fiscal year — FY2026 (activity Jun 2025–May 2026)
$356,825,915 · Prior year: $373,340,164 · YoY (computed): −4.4%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Apr 2026
$30,987,301 · Prior-year month: $32,629,320 · YoY (computed): −5.0%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Mar 2026
$35,805,726 · Prior-year month: $31,368,968 · YoY (computed): +14.1%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Feb 2026
$28,768,834 · Prior-year month: $27,566,508 · YoY (computed): +4.4%.
+10 earlier periods
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Jan 2026
$33,269,086 · Prior-year month: $33,622,194 · YoY (computed): −1.1%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Dec 2025
$26,577,539 · Prior-year month: $29,684,756 · YoY (computed): −10.5%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Nov 2025
$28,651,086 · Prior-year month: $30,094,356 · YoY (computed): −4.8%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Oct 2025
$34,630,032 · Prior-year month: $36,664,287 · YoY (computed): −5.5%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Sep 2025
$28,804,726 · Prior-year month: $32,378,520 · YoY (computed): −11.0%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Aug 2025
$25,575,712 · Prior-year month: $28,654,284 · YoY (computed): −10.7%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Jul 2025
$23,348,699 · Prior-year month: $28,225,045 · YoY (computed): −17.3%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, by hotel-activity month — Jun 2025
$24,603,391 · Prior-year month: $28,999,138 · YoY (computed): −15.2%.
Las Vegas LVCVA room tax, fiscal year — FY2025 (activity Jun 2024–May 2025)
$373,340,164. Basis: LVCVA's own room-tax revenue by month of hotel activity (received about two months later); LVCVA FY Jul–Jun.
Las Vegas hotel-tax series — gaps
Las Vegas hotel-tax series gaps (as of 2026-10-20): July–August 2026 activity: LVCVA shows estimates only, so no actuals are loaded (no…
Source: Official publishers (gap note; no public read) · no public read
Assets
1 citedHard Rock Las Vegas (former Mirage)
3,600 keys · gaming resort (reopening)Strip
Mirage closed mid-2024; Hard Rock targeting late 2027 incl. ~675 Guitar Hotel keys. Discrete ~2.4% inventory-class return.
Linked findings
Radar refresh: Vegas visitors 38.5M soft; midweek OCC 76.6%
Total OCC 80.3% / weekend 88.8%. Watch Hard Rock ~3.6k-key late-2027 return into softer demand.
Source: LVCVA FAQ YE 2025 (updated 06/2026); News3LV YE wrap citing LVCVA
Visitors 38.5M; midweek occupancy 76.6%
38.5M visitors soft; total OCC 80.3% but midweek 76.6%. Thesis: event- and airlift-dependent cyclical, not unstoppable leisure.
Source: LVCVA FAQ YE 2025